According to David Rothschild, who runs the prediction market aggregator PredictWise.com, the top three candidates remain Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. Long odds are available for all the other candidates. No contender saw his or her odds move by more than four percentage points. Movements this small are sometimes not even meaningful, as they reflect the ebb and flow of money for or against a particular candidate.Walker knows he tanked on Thursday too.
Jeb Bush, whose lackluster performance has been dissected at length, was rated a 43 percent chance of winning the nomination in the minutes before the debate, and he remains a dominant favorite with a 42 percent chance.
The prediction markets make Scott Walker the night’s biggest loser; his chances were cut from 20 percent to 16 percent. Yet Marco Rubio’s solid performance left his odds unchanged at 10 percent.
On Friday, his campaign set out a whopping dozen press releases. Giving away his panic at his dropping numbers, his press releases including things like:
- I've always been radically pro-life. No, really!
- Don't blame me for flip flopping on immigration, blame the American people!
- We should support Israel because I visited there once.
- I will start a war with Iran on Day One because that's what those nice Israelis want me to do.
- Hillary's email scandal is bad but don't ask me about mine