By Jeff Simpson
Its common knowledge now that Mary Burke's campaign strategy is to attempt to appeal to the Obama/Walker voter. After the dust up yesterday of Mary Burke skipping out on the appearance by President Obama, her friend Paul Fanlund put out an article, trying to justify this strategy.
Franklin generally agrees: “I think if you look at all of our data over two years now, you do find something in the ballpark of 10 percent that fall into this category of what you might call Walker-Obama voters, and I have looked at them in some detail.The problem that we come into with this is that they make the false assumption, that both sides are the same. That the "far left" will play as poorly with the general public as the "far right". That is a false assumption, and the fact that not only the media but all to often the democratic party feeds into that has been a major reason for the election beatings the last few years.
“They’re much more likely to call themselves independents; they are much more likely to say they are moderate rather than either liberal or conservative. They’re considerably younger than the population as a whole. They pay less attention to politics and are, of course, less likely to be partisan.”
Let's take a look. For the purposes of this article, I will look at what I consider to be the opposite ends of the spectrum - Republican Senator Glenn Grothman and Democratic Representative Chris Taylor.
Here is a list of Glenn Grothman's bills:
Sponsoring a mandatory forced ultrasound before abortion, A bill that prohibits non-existent sex selective abortion, and making it harder to vote.
A sampling of Representative Chris Taylor's bills:
Healthy Women/Healthy Families Part 1 and 2 (AB 348, AB 349): Restores state funding
to the state’s family planning program and essential Medicaid services for uninsured and
low-income women and families across Wisconsin.
Let Them Drink Milk Initiative (AB 566): This bill restores funding for school milk
programs for low-income children.
Mercury Bill (AB 744): Establishes rebate programs for the return of thermostats and
compact florescent lightbulbs that contain mercury in order to reduce mercury pollution
in landfills and in lakes, rivers and streams.
Not seeming equal to me. Let's now look, because with the wonders of youtube we can, at SB507:
Section 1. 48.982 (2) (g) 2. of the statutes is amended to read:Glenn Grothmans(the author of the bill) view's:
2 48.982 (2) (g) 2. Promote statewide educational and public awareness
3campaigns and materials for the purpose of developing public awareness of the
4problems of child abuse and neglect. In promoting those campaigns and materials,
5the board shall emphasize nonmarital parenthood as a contributing factor to child
6abuse and neglect.7Section 2. 48.982 (2) (g) 4. of the statutes is amended to read:8 48.982 (2) (g) 4. Disseminate information about the problems of and methods
9of preventing child abuse and neglect to the public and to organizations concerned
10with those problems. In disseminating that information, the board shall emphasize
11nonmarital parenthood as a contributing factor to child abuse and neglect.12Section 3. 48.982 (2) (gm) of the statutes is amended to read:13 48.982 (2) (gm) Provide, for use by the board in its statewide projects under sub.
14(5) and for use by organizations that receive grants under subs. (4) and (6),
15educational and public awareness materials and programming that emphasize
16nonmarital parenthood as a contributing factor to child abuse and neglect and the
17role of fathers in the primary prevention of child abuse and neglect.
Chris Taylor on SB 507:
Let's now look at a random video of each
Glenn Grothman pointing out how rough white males have it in America:
Representative Chris Taylor regarding the Republican legislative agenda:
Do you really think we can equate the "far left" with the "far right"? Are the people of Wisconsin more aligned with Grothman or Taylor? Are there people in Wisconsin who say, I want to force ultrasounds on women and have corporations tell me how much BPA is in the plastic container I just bought? Are there voters who say i want to make sure we crush the unions and allow minorities to vote, so I am torn on who to support?
Is that the voter we need to reach? want to reach? is reachable?
As Fanlund himself puts it:
Whatever, Walker’s re-election fate will apparently hinge on the sort of political non-combatants reflected in Franklin’s polling. It has always seemed to me, I said to Franklin, that about 45 percent of Wisconsin voters adore Walker, another 45 percent loathe him, and those with much, much less passion get to decide his fate.
So 90% of the people have their minds made up in terms of what side they are on leaving 10% apathetic. The one thing no one addresses is that while 90% of the people have their mind made up, less than 50% of the people VOTE.
In Wisconsin we have (roughly) 5,700,000 people of which, approximately 2,500,000 people voted in the last gubernatorial election. take into account that (roughly) 1,300,000 people are under 18, that leaves roughly 1,900,000 people who do not vote. The ten percent(which is a very high guesstimate) of undecided's would equal approximately 570,000. This still leaves over 1,300,000 people who represent a party and have not been motivated to move to the polls to fill in the line. (FYI for perspective - Tom Barrett lost the recall election by 171,106 votes).
Who amongst the do not vote category is more likely to turn up on election day? Someone who identifies and likes a candidate or someone who has no idea whats happening in our day to day society?
Now let's break it down even further. We know that there are more Democratic voters in Wisconsin than republicans. While Wisconsin is a purple state it definitely leans to the left of center.
Now let's go back to the Marquette Poll that everyone likes to use as a fact:
What issues are important to the people of WI?
Says Franklin of his latest poll: “Support for increasing the minimum wage, support for extending unemployment benefits, opposition to refusing Medicaid expansion. There’s quite a list of things that we polled on that show majorities that are typically Democratic sides of the issue.”
Last summer, Walker quietly signed into law a bill requiring women to have an ultrasound before an abortion, an action opposed by 56 percent to 38 percent in Marquette’s October poll.
Now let's sum it up. There are more Democratic voters in Wisconsin than republican, the Core issues that matter most to Wisconsinites, are traditional Democratic strong hold issues and the current Democratic candidate for Governor is running as "anything but a rabid Democrat".
Mary Burke is also losing ground fast.
You do the math.
More on this subject @ Political Heat!